the bank believes that the ecb should be offset in the next few months by a sustained deterioration of prospects for inflation event.
” la key to our anticipation of near-term downside in eur / usd is that the ecb is expected to be offset by a deterioration in the coming months, sustained inflation expectations (event, which, together with the loss of momentum in the euro area cycles, could be the event risk in view of the change. important position in recent months.
in terms of the usd, the edf committed to the standardization of policies should also weigh on the eur / usd rate.
in the longer term, we insist on the fact that the event to monitor events over a time horizon of 12 m will be powered by a change to the ecb for further easing. we therefore continue to stress the fundamentals continue to be favorable.
we argue that the risks are on the decline in the short term, and we just kept our focus on longer-term forecasts for eur / usd to 1.11 in 1 month (formerly 1.09 in 3m 1.07), 6 (unchanged), 1.12 (1.11) and in (1.16). in. » 12m
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